Mozambique Among Africa’s Most Vulnerable Countries as Super El Niño Threatens Southern Africa

Mozambique is facing renewed climate risks as a strengthening El Niño weather pattern threatens to bring drought, extreme heat and water shortages to parts of Southern Africa.

The United Nations has highlighted Mozambique's particular vulnerability to climate change, despite the country's relatively small contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions.

UN Special Rapporteur on climate change Elisa Morgera raised concerns following an 11-day working visit to Mozambique, warning that the coming months could bring prolonged droughts, cyclones and floods as the 2026 El Niño intensifies.

The UN has identified the 2026/27 El Niño as a potentially record-breaking event, with Southern Africa among the regions expected to face significant climate impacts.

Drought and Flood Risks

The anticipated impacts are not expected to be uniform across Mozambique.

UN agencies and humanitarian organisations say southern and central parts of the country are at increased risk of drought and below-average rainfall, while northern areas could face flooding.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Food Programme (WFP) have warned that the weather pattern could affect crop production, livestock, water availability and rural livelihoods.

The UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction has similarly identified agriculture and water resources as major pathways through which El Niño could affect Mozambique, with food security and household welfare potentially suffering as a result.

Food Security Under Pressure

The expected weather shocks come as Mozambique is already dealing with significant food-security challenges.

FAO reported in September that early-2026 floods and Cyclone Gezani caused extensive damage to crops, livestock and agricultural assets, while conflict-related displacement and high food and transport prices have further weakened household resilience.

The agency said 1.19 million people were facing crisis-level food insecurity or worse across 46 districts at the time of its assessment, with the figure projected to rise to 1.84 million during the October 2026 to March 2027 lean season.

The combination of existing food insecurity and another major climate shock could place additional pressure on communities that depend heavily on rain-fed agriculture.

UN Calls for Greater Corporate Responsibility

During her visit, Morgera also called for stronger obligations on private companies operating in Mozambique to respect human rights and prevent foreseeable environmental and climate damage.

She particularly highlighted fossil-fuel companies, arguing that businesses should be held accountable for environmental impacts associated with their operations.

The call comes as Mozambique continues to balance economic development and investment with growing concerns about climate vulnerability and environmental protection.

Region Faces Wider El Niño Risks

Mozambique is not alone in facing the effects of the strengthening El Niño.

UNICEF estimates that more than 162 million children across Eastern and Southern Africa live in areas exposed to the weather pattern's potential effects. The agency has warned of overlapping risks from drought, extreme heat and flooding, with consequences for food security, health, water access and education.

Malawi and Madagascar are also among the countries facing significant climate-related risks in the region.

For Mozambique, the immediate challenge is preparing communities before the most severe effects of the 2026/27 climate season materialise.

FAO and WFP have already supported anticipatory measures, including early-warning systems, drought-tolerant agricultural inputs, livestock protection and rehabilitation of water infrastructure.