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China President Xi Jinping plays peacemaker on Russia visit
19/03/2023 17:53 in World News

President Xi Jinping will travel to Russia on Monday, looking for a breakthrough in the Ukraine crisis as China strives to portray itself as a peacemaker.

Xi, who was just re-elected for a third term, is pushing for China to play a larger role on the global arena, and was instrumental in arranging a surprise truce between Middle Eastern enemies Iran and Saudi Arabia this month.

 

Reports that he would shortly make his first phone contact to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky since the commencement of the war have fueled hopes in Western capitals that Xi will rely on his "old friend" Putin to cease his deadly invasion during the three-day state visit.

 

China will "play a helpful role in facilitating peace talks," said foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin in announcing the trip on Friday.

 

"Stopping the conflict is everyone's wish, given that Europe stands to lose so much and the US may not be able to defend Ukraine for as long as it thinks it can," Wang Yiwei, head of the Institute of International Relations at Beijing's Renmin University of China, said.

 

"China may express itself on both sides, claiming to be a trustworthy friend of both Ukraine and Russia. This, I believe, is quite significant."

 

China, a key Russian ally, has long portrayed itself as a neutral player in the crisis.

 

But, it has declined to condemn Russia's incursion and has strongly criticised Washington's support for Kyiv, prompting Western officials to accuse Beijing of providing diplomatic cover for Russia's bludgeoning of its European neighbour.

 

"China has done relatively little so far to foster peace in Ukraine, because any meaningful effort would require pressing Russia or, at the very least, directly calling Russia out," said Elizabeth Wishnick, a Chinese foreign policy expert at Montclair State University in the United States.

 

Xi's trip, which comes after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin on war crimes charges on Friday, is intended to "demonstrate whatever support for his strategic ally he can provide, short of help that would result in penalties," according to AFP.

 

Much talk, little substance

Aiming to play the role of peacemaker, China issued a 12-point position paper on the Ukraine conflict last month, advocating for discussion and respect for all countries' territorial sovereignty.

 

Beijing has also emphasised its Global Security Initiative (GSI), a trademark Xi programme that aims to "promote enduring peace and development".

 

These publications have sparked outrage in the West for focusing on broad ideas rather than specific remedies to the problem.

 

China's recent war diplomacy appears to be a "effort to showcase" the GSI and "create momentum for its foreign policy and re-engagement with the world," according to Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore.

 

"Whether (China) is stepping up its attempts to play peacemaker in a meaningful way will depend on the substance of what it proposes during talks with Ukrainian and Russian leaders," said Chong, an expert on Beijing's international affairs.

 

"Their prior peace plan was focused on broad ideals rather than specific suggestions."

 

'Not impartial.'

This month, Beijing's efforts to establish itself as an international mediator were on display when it mediated a deal that restored diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

 

It was then revealed that Xi himself offered for China to act as a "bridge" between the competitors, calling into question Washington's long-standing role as the primary external power broker in the Middle East.

 

"Brokering the (Saudi-Iran) deal feeds into the Chinese government's narrative of being a positive-sum global player encouraging peace and cooperation in contrast to Washington's purportedly destabilising acts," said Audrye Wong, an assistant professor at the University of Southern California.

 

Nevertheless, putting a stop to the fighting in Ukraine would be "slightly more difficult" than the Saudi-Iran agreement, according to Wang of Renmin University, citing China's "limited" influence over Moscow and US support for Kyiv.

 

He proposed that Beijing could assist bring in "an armistice similar to the one formed from the Korean War," which would end the conflict but push territorial sovereignty issues farther down the line.

 

But Wishnick, of Montclair State, said Ukraine was "unlikely to accept China as a mediator as it is not perceived as neutral or impartial".

 

"Xi may be looking for diplomatic victories, but I don't see one on the horizon in Ukraine," she said.

 

"Neither side is willing to give up hope for battlefield territory gains just yet."

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