Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have sharply escalated, with Ethiopia accusing its neighbor of preparing for war in collaboration with a hardline Tigrayan opposition faction. The allegations, detailed in a letter by Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, mark a significant deterioration in relations between the two Horn of Africa nations.
According to the letter, Eritrea and a faction of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) are funding and directing armed groups within Ethiopia’s Amhara region, where violent clashes between the federal government and Fano militias have intensified in recent months. Ethiopia alleges these groups are working to destabilize Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and potentially pave the way for a broader conflict.
“The hardliner faction of the TPLF and the Eritrean government are actively preparing to wage war against Ethiopia,” the letter reportedly states.
This comes amid growing Ethiopian efforts to regain access to the Red Sea, a move that has alarmed Eritrea, which controls the strategic coastline since gaining independence in 1993. The Red Sea issue has become a major geopolitical flashpoint, rekindling historical grievances between the two nations, who fought a devastating war from 1998 to 2000.
Despite a thaw in relations after Abiy assumed office in 2018 and brokered peace with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, tensions have since resurged — particularly following Ethiopia’s renewed interest in Red Sea ports and unresolved issues from the Tigray conflict.
Eritrea, while not a party to the 2022 Ethiopia-TPLF peace deal, reportedly remains aligned with the Debretsion Gebremichael-led TPLF faction, which opposes the federal government’s handling of the peace implementation.
The letter further alleges that TPLF fighters and Eritrean support were involved in a Fano militia-led attack on Woldiya, a key town in Amhara, in September. Ethiopian media have described the conflict in Amhara as increasingly brutal, with the Fano militia — once allies of Abiy’s government — now seemingly aiming to overthrow the federal regime.
In parallel, a diplomatic spat erupted after Ethiopia’s President Taye Atske Selassie told parliament that the Red Sea and River Nile are essential to Ethiopia’s national survival — remarks that were swiftly condemned by Eritrea’s Information Minister, Yemane Gebremeskel, as “crass” and “bizarre”.
With regional security and access to strategic waterways at stake, analysts warn that without diplomatic intervention, the Horn of Africa could face another destabilizing conflict with potential cross-border ramifications.
