Mandera Deputy Governor Ali Maalim has cautioned that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) faces an increasing threat of internal division and regional fragmentation following the death of its longtime leader, Raila Odinga.
Speaking during an interview on a local television station on Thursday, Maalim said the vacuum left by Raila’s passing has created emerging local power centres that could weaken ODM’s national unity if not carefully managed.
“Objectively, ODM seems to be moving toward a partnership with President William Ruto in forming the next government,” Maalim said. “But with Raila Odinga’s demise, we’re beginning to see growing internal commotion small regional power bases are emerging across the Coast, Nyanza, and Western regions. This is a very risky situation.”
The deputy governor drew parallels between ODM’s current state and the collapse of the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD) in the early 1990s, warning that history could repeat itself if ODM leaders fail to maintain internal cohesion.
“FORD was built on the promise of reform and liberation, but it eventually splintered into FORD-Asili and FORD-Kenya,” Maalim said. “ODM could face a similar fate breaking down into factions like ODM-Coast, ODM-Western, and ODM-Nyanza if regional loyalties and personal ambitions take precedence.”
Maalim stressed that ODM’s true strength lies in its national identity, not regional dominance, and urged the party’s leadership to prioritise unity over political competition.
“ODM has always been a national movement. Allowing regional interests to dominate will only dilute its influence and erode the principles it was founded on,” he noted.
The deputy governor further called on the party’s top brass to act swiftly to stem factionalism and rein in political brokers who may exploit Raila’s absence to advance narrow regional agendas.
“ODM needs to focus on internal cohesion right now,” Maalim added. “There are too many regional brokers who could easily fracture this great party into smaller, less effective splinter groups if the leadership doesn’t take control.”
As ODM navigates a post-Raila era, political analysts say the party’s future will hinge on whether it can preserve the unity and broad-based appeal that made it one of Kenya’s most formidable political movements for nearly two decades.
