China has officially broken ground on what it claims will become the world’s largest hydropower project—a $170 billion mega-dam along the Yarlung Zangbo River in Tibet. Once completed, this colossal initiative is expected to generate enough clean electricity annually to power an entire country the size of Britain. But as Beijing celebrates the economic and energy promise of the project, neighboring countries downstream are raising alarms over water security, regional stability, and environmental risks.
A Monumental Project with Limited Transparency
Unveiled by Premier Li Qiang, the dam will consist of five massive installations built over a 50-kilometer stretch of river where the Yarlung Zangbo drops 2,000 meters from the Tibetan Plateau. The first power output is anticipated between the early to mid-2030s. Despite the scale and strategic importance of the project, China has released little technical detail about its construction timeline, methods, or environmental safeguards—leaving the global community guessing.
Regional Anxiety Over Water Security
The Yarlung Zangbo becomes the Brahmaputra River as it flows into India and Bangladesh, where it is vital for irrigation, hydropower, and drinking water for millions. The lack of clarity from Beijing has fueled fears in India, especially in the northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, where leaders warn the dam could dramatically reduce river flows and potentially inundate low-lying regions like Assam.
Experts have also noted that less sediment will travel downstream—sediment rich in nutrients that are essential for agriculture across South Asia’s fertile floodplains.
Geopolitical Tensions and Trust Deficit
The project further strains already fragile India-China relations. The two countries fought a war in the region in the 1960s, and many Indian policymakers fear that China could eventually use water as a geopolitical weapon. While Beijing insists the project is purely for clean energy and flood control—and claims it has shared necessary hydrological information—India’s government has yet to publicly respond.
Water expert Sayanangshu Modak suggests these concerns may be partially overstated. He points out that most of the Brahmaputra’s water comes from monsoon rains south of the Himalayas, not China. Moreover, China has framed this as a “run-of-the-river” project, implying that water will not be significantly diverted from its natural course.
Still, India is hedging its bets with its own hydropower ambitions, proposing two major dams on the Siang River (India’s name for the Yarlung Zangbo), including an 11.5-gigawatt project that would be the largest in the country.
Global Pattern of Water Disputes
China’s dam is just one chapter in a growing global narrative of hydro-political tensions. From India and Pakistan’s disputes over the Indus Waters Treaty to Egypt and Ethiopia’s standoff over the Nile’s Grand Renaissance Dam, water infrastructure is increasingly becoming a flashpoint in international relations.
High-Risk Construction in a Volatile Zone
Beyond geopolitical stakes, experts warn of severe environmental and safety risks. The Tibetan Plateau, where the dam is being built, is prone to earthquakes, landslides, glacial lake outbursts, and extreme weather. A smaller dam nearby was limited to only four months of construction each year due to engineering difficulties and harsh winter conditions.
With the shadow of a recent deadly earthquake in the region still fresh, concerns about the structural safety and long-term viability of this mega-dam are real and pressing.
