Campaigning officially begins this Saturday in Guinea-Bissau, three weeks ahead of crucial presidential and legislative elections set for November 23, in a contest widely seen as favoring incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embalo.
For the first time in the country’s history, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) the movement that led the nation to independence from Portugal in 1974 will not appear on the ballot. The Pai Terra Ranka coalition, a bloc of around 10 political parties led by Embalo’s main rival Domingos Simões Pereira, has also been disqualified.
The Supreme Court removed both PAIGC and Pai Terra Ranka from the final list of candidates in October, citing late submission of official documents. The decision has effectively sidelined the main opposition, raising concerns among political observers about the credibility of the upcoming polls.
Military Tensions and Security Crackdown
Adding to the tension, the Guinea-Bissau army announced on Friday that it had foiled an attempt to “subvert the constitutional order” and arrested several high-ranking military officers.
“This action aimed to disrupt the electoral process,” said General Mamadu Ture, the army’s deputy chief of staff, without disclosing further details.
President Embalo, speaking after a cabinet meeting on Thursday, warned that “no disorder will be tolerated” during the election period.
A Decade of Fragile Progress
Guinea-Bissau, home to roughly 860,000 registered voters, has experienced four successful coups and numerous attempted ones since independence. Despite progress toward democratic governance in the past decade, the nation remains politically fragile.
Voters will now choose between 12 presidential candidates, including Embalo and former president José Mário Vaz. Fourteen political parties among them No Kumpu Guine, a pro-Embalo coalition will compete for 102 parliamentary seats.
Political analyst Fransual Dias told AFP that with Embalo’s strongest opponents barred from participating, “his victory is almost guaranteed.”
Stability and Legitimacy at Stake
Political stability remains a central theme in this election. Embalo, first elected in 2019, has faced persistent accusations of consolidating power. In 2023, he dissolved parliament, then controlled by the opposition, following what he described as an attempted coup a move denounced by Pereira as a “constitutional coup.”
The election, already delayed from earlier this year, comes amid accusations that Embalo is extending his tenure beyond the constitutionally mandated period. His government, however, insists that the postponement was necessary to ensure peace and security ahead of the vote.
As Guinea-Bissau heads toward election day, the disqualification of major opposition forces and renewed reports of military unrest have raised serious questions about the country’s democratic future and its ability to sustain long-term political stability.
