Umaro Sissoco Embaló is aiming to make history this month as the first sitting president in Guinea-Bissau in 30 years to secure re-election. However, his tenure since taking office in 2020 has been marked by turbulence and insecurity.
Embaló’s government has faced multiple coup attempts, including a dramatic 2022 attack featuring hours of gunfire near the cabinet building. Meanwhile, the country’s lucrative cocaine trade continues to flourish, with a recent civil society report indicating that trafficking profits may be higher than ever, adding to the nation’s instability.
The 53-year-old former army general has also faced persistent questions about his legitimacy. Critics argue that he did not win the 2019 election fairly and accuse him of overstaying his mandate.
Despite these controversies, Embaló enters the November 23 presidential and legislative elections as the clear favorite, bolstered by the exclusion of his main rival, former Prime Minister Domingos Simões Pereira. Yet, securing a second term will not necessarily simplify governance.
Guinea-Bissau remains heavily dependent on volatile cashew exports, and pressing challenges such as poverty reduction, healthcare improvement, and educational development remain largely unaddressed. Analysts say that while re-election would be a historic milestone for Embaló, the road ahead is fraught with political and economic obstacles.
