More than half of Kenyans say they would not support President William Ruto for a second term, according to a new Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) poll.
The nationwide survey — conducted between August 23 and September 3, 2024, among 2,024 adults across all 47 counties — shows that just 32% of Kenyans expect or support Ruto’s re-election in 2027.
At the same time, the poll underscores uncertainty around veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga’s next political move. According to the findings:
- 23% want Odinga to return to the opposition and run for president.
- 17% prefer he support another opposition candidate.
- 14% believe he should retire from politics altogether.
TIFA notes that Odinga’s political identity is now “at a crossroads,” as his recent cooperation with Ruto through the Broad-Based Government (BBG) has unsettled his traditional support base.
Broad-Based Government Faces Strong Public Rejection
The BBG — a political arrangement born after Ruto backed Odinga’s failed bid for African Union Commission chair and brought some ODM allies into government — is unpopular among Kenyans.
- 64% oppose the BBG, while only 29% support it.
- Opposition is particularly strong in Mt. Kenya (83%) and Lower Eastern (75%), regions allied to former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Azimio leader Kalonzo Musyoka.
Among those critical of the BBG:
- 37% say it serves the personal interests of Ruto and Odinga.
- 27% feel it weakens democracy by diluting the opposition.
- 17% argue it fails to address development needs.
Smaller groups raise concerns about corruption and human rights.
Opposition Unity Remains Uncertain
When asked about the possibility of the opposition uniting behind a single candidate to challenge Ruto in 2027, Kenyans were divided:
- 32% believe unity is “very likely.”
- 26% say it’s “somewhat likely.”
- 30% think it’s unlikely.
Interestingly, perceptions on unity mirror opinions on the BBG — with both supporters and opponents expressing mixed confidence in a cohesive opposition strategy.
Party Loyalty Weakens as Voter Discontent Grows
The poll also reveals declining support for established political parties. Both UDA and ODM have seen significant drops since the 2022 election. Meanwhile, the “undecided/none” category has risen sharply to 43%, emerging as the single largest voting bloc.
This signals growing public frustration with traditional politics and could shape Kenya’s 2027 race in unpredictable ways.
Odinga Urges ODM to Stay Focused
Speaking at ODM’s 20th anniversary on Monday, Raila Odinga advised party members to avoid prematurely discussing 2027 election plans and instead stay aligned with the party’s long-term strategy.
As Kenya’s political landscape evolves, the TIFA survey suggests voters are skeptical about current alliances and eager for stronger opposition clarity heading into the next general election.
