England’s state primary schools are facing a sharp decline in pupil numbers, raising concerns that up to 800 schools could close or stand empty by the end of the decade, according to new analysis from the Education Policy Institute (EPI).
What’s Driving the Decline?
The downturn is primarily linked to a sustained fall in birth rates since 2010, after a brief peak that led to surging enrolments between 2014 and 2018. However, the challenge is more pronounced in London, where additional pressures – such as families relocating, rising living costs, and children moving to private or overseas schools – have accelerated the drop.
EPI’s data shows:
- Primary pupil numbers peaked in 2018–19 at 4.5 million.
- Numbers have already fallen nearly 2% since then.
- A further 4% decline is forecast over the next five years, leaving just 4.24 million pupils by 2029 – equivalent to the closure of 800 single-form primary schools.
London Hit Hardest
Nine of the ten councils with the steepest projected declines are in London, with boroughs such as Islington, Lambeth, and Southwark among the worst affected. EPI also found that one in five pupils who began reception in London in 2017 had left the state sector by the time they should have reached Year 6.
Researchers suggest that Brexit-related migration, the aftermath of Covid-19, and London’s higher proportion of international families are key factors behind this pattern of “missing or permanent leavers.”
Financial and Social Impacts
Falling enrolments mean reduced funding, since school budgets are tied to pupil numbers. Jon Andrews, EPI’s head of analysis, warns this places schools under “increasing financial pressures, which can ultimately threaten their long-term viability.”
Education leaders, including Paul Whiteman of the National Association of Head Teachers, are urging the government to support councils. He argues that rather than allowing closures, this moment could be used to strengthen the system: “Smaller classes and more targeted help” could be possible if funding structures adapt.
Looking Ahead
While low birth rates are a central cause, EPI stresses that demographic shifts, housing pressures, and regional inequalities in education quality are also reshaping family decisions. Without intervention, the coming years could bring widespread closures, particularly in London, reshaping the country’s educational landscape.
