The Trump administration has defended its recent capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro as a law enforcement operation aimed at dismantling a “narco‑state,” while simultaneously seeking to sever Venezuela’s alliances with China, Russia, and Iran. By doing so, the US aims to regain control of the world’s largest known oil reserves and consolidate influence over the region.
This initiative reflects a broader strategic framework, elevated in the administration’s 2025 national security strategy, which pledges to “reassert and enforce American preeminence in the western hemisphere” and deny “strategically vital assets” to rival powers. Trump has branded this approach the “Donroe doctrine,” presenting it as a modern iteration of the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine. The policy envisions rewarding compliant governments while punishing defiant ones, effectively tightening US influence across Latin America.
Venezuela as the First Test Case
Venezuela is the first country to experience the doctrine in action. The seizure of Maduro has prompted hopes that US-backed policies, particularly cooperation on oil exports, may stabilize the nation’s economy. Analysts argue that the operation demonstrates the lengths to which the US is willing to go to control strategic resources and counter rival influence in the region.
Potential Targets: Cuba and Mexico
Cuba, heavily dependent on Venezuelan oil, is likely the next focus. Years of economic decline have left the island vulnerable, with blackouts lasting up to 20 hours and wages collapsing. Cuba’s reliance on Venezuela for fuel, financial aid, and personnel underscores its fragility. By cutting these lifelines, the Trump administration may exert sufficient pressure to topple Cuba’s government without direct military intervention.
Mexico, supplying roughly 12,000 barrels of oil per day to Cuba, also faces potential scrutiny. Trump has linked Mexico’s drug cartels to national security risks, even suggesting classifying them as terrorist organisations and labelling fentanyl trafficking a weapon of mass destruction. These legal framings could justify future operations on Mexican soil. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has responded by reinforcing security cooperation with the US, aiming to mitigate potential threats.
Colombia and Nicaragua: Allies Turned Targets
Colombia, long a US ally, is increasingly under scrutiny following criticisms of the Venezuela raid by President Gustavo Petro. While tensions have flared, Trump’s rhetoric suggests that Colombia could face pressure akin to Venezuela if its government diverges from US expectations. Similarly, Nicaragua, historically grouped with Cuba and Venezuela as part of a “trio of rogue states,” faces heightened vulnerability due to its role as a cocaine transit hub.
Strategic Implications
Trump’s strategy intertwines counter-narcotics, energy security, and great power competition. By framing countries as threats or allies based on their alignment with US interests, Washington wields economic, political, and potentially military influence across Latin America. While some nations may avoid direct consequences by aligning with US objectives, the overarching message is clear: hemispheric dominance is no longer an abstract principle but an actionable policy.
As the region watches these developments, the Donroe doctrine underscores a new era of US-Latin American relations one where strategic control, energy resources, and political compliance are central to Washington’s approach, and deviation from US preferences carries significant risk.
Conclusion
The Venezuelan operation serves as a precedent for the Donroe doctrine, signaling a shift in US strategy that merges security, economics, and geopolitical influence. For Latin American countries, the calculus is increasingly complex: cooperate with Washington and maintain stability, or resist and risk punitive measures.
