As Uganda approaches its general election on January 15, international human rights watchdogs have raised alarm over the escalating crackdown on opposition figures. Amnesty International has described the situation as “a brutal campaign of repression,” highlighting the growing threats faced by presidential candidate Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, widely known as Bobi Wine.
Wine, a musician-turned-politician, has repeatedly found himself at the center of violent disruptions during his campaigns. Donning a flak jacket and helmet, he seeks to protect himself from potential gunfire but even this safety gear cannot shield him from clouds of tear gas, pepper spray, and other forms of crowd control used by security forces.
Challenging President Yoweri Museveni, who has ruled Uganda since 1986, Wine is confronting a deeply entrenched political system. Museveni has removed presidential term and age limits, jailed or sidelined rivals, and maintained a constant security presence at opposition rallies as he campaigns for a seventh term.
Wine’s own experience mirrors that of the 2021 election, when he faced police beatings, clothing torn from his body, and the imprisonment of dozens of supporters. Speaking to The Associated Press, Wine accused the military of effectively controlling the electoral process this time, noting that at least three of his supporters have already been killed in violent campaign events.
“The police have conducted themselves in the most illegal and unprofessional manner,” he said, citing restrictions on carrying the national flag, harassment on public roads, and relentless surveillance by over 40 police and military vehicles. Amnesty International emphasized that these acts of intimidation, including beatings and arrests, constitute a systematic effort to suppress opposition voices.
President Museveni has defended the use of tear gas to disperse Wine’s supporters, referring to the opposition as “criminal” and insisting that non-lethal methods are necessary to maintain order. Yet critics note that Museveni himself campaigns without disruption, underscoring the stark imbalance in political freedom.
The stakes are high. Museveni, the third-longest-serving African leader, has repeatedly rewritten the rules to extend his tenure and now eyes a fifth decade in power. His son, Army Chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has publicly signaled a desire to succeed him, raising concerns of hereditary succession. Meanwhile, opposition figures such as Wine and the late Kizza Besigye once Museveni’s personal doctor have faced years of imprisonment and harassment.
Wine’s rise represents a generational shift in Ugandan politics. At 43, he embodies youthful hope for change, enjoying strong support among urban working-class populations and leading the opposition party with the largest parliamentary representation. In the 2021 election, he secured 35 percent of the vote against Museveni’s 58 percent, establishing himself as a credible challenger despite systemic hurdles.
Yet the political environment remains perilous. Journalists, activists, and opposition supporters face arrests, surveillance, and intimidation. Recent charges against civic leader Sarah Bireete, for allegedly sharing voters’ registry data, have drawn criticism as politically motivated and intended to silence dissent ahead of the vote.
“The evidence is out for everyone to see that indeed Uganda can no longer claim to be a constitutional democracy,” Bireete said prior to her detention. Political analysts argue that Museveni’s reliance on a security apparatus controlled by his son underscores the growing militarization of governance and the fragility of democratic institutions in the country.
As election day nears, Wine urges his supporters to remain resolute despite internet shutdowns and other forms of voter suppression. “We are not participating in this election because it is free and fair, no. We are participating to draw the attention of the world to the disrespect of democracy in Uganda,” he said.
Uganda’s 2026 election will thus be a litmus test not only for the country’s political opposition but for the broader international commitment to democratic governance in East Africa. For citizens and observers alike, the challenge is clear: how to exercise political will in a system where the rules are heavily skewed toward the incumbent.
