Fighting Escalates in Northern Ethiopia as Humanitarian Fears Grow

Fighting has intensified across northern Ethiopia, raising concerns over a renewed humanitarian crisis as clashes between forces aligned with the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and Ethiopia's federal government spread beyond Tigray.

The latest escalation began around September 22 and has affected parts of Tigray, Afar and Amhara. The renewed violence comes after months of rising tensions and threatens to further strain a region still dealing with the consequences of the 2020–2022 Tigray war.

Fighting Spreads Beyond Tigray

Tigrayan forces have reportedly taken control of several regional airports and have clashed with federal forces in neighbouring Afar and Amhara.

The TPLF says its forces are responding defensively to attacks by the federal government, while Ethiopian authorities and other officials have accused Tigrayan forces and allied groups of launching attacks against government positions.

The competing accounts have been difficult to independently verify because communications in Tigray have been severely disrupted.

The European Union has expressed concern over the deteriorating security situation and reported military activity across several areas, including the takeover of airports in Mekelle, Axum and Shire by Tigrayan forces. It has called for de-escalation and renewed commitment to the 2022 cessation-of-hostilities agreement.

Thousands Displaced in Afar

The renewed fighting is already having consequences for civilians.

A humanitarian source cited by recent reporting estimated that at least 150,000 people had been displaced in Afar, although the source cautioned that precise figures were difficult to establish because of the security situation.

Human Rights Watch has warned that the renewed hostilities could expose civilians to further abuses, pointing to the history of serious violations during Ethiopia's previous conflict.

The organisation has called on all parties to take measures to protect civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Concerns Over Regional Involvement

The conflict is also drawing renewed attention to Ethiopia's relationships with neighbouring countries.

Ethiopian Army Chief of Staff Field Marshal Birhanu Jula has accused Eritrea, Sudan, Egypt and other external actors of supporting armed groups opposed to the federal government.

The accusations have not been independently substantiated. Sudan's military has denied Ethiopia's allegations, while Eritrea has also rejected accusations that it is supporting armed groups against Addis Ababa.

The accusations come as Ethiopia faces wider regional tensions involving its neighbours and unresolved disputes over security, borders and access to the Red Sea.

New Alliance Adds to Tensions

The latest escalation follows the formation of an alliance involving seven Ethiopian armed groups, including the TPLF, Oromo Liberation Army and Amhara Fano National Movement.

The groups have declared opposition to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government and called for political change.

Their alliance has added another dimension to Ethiopia's internal political and security crisis, although the extent of operational cooperation between the different groups remains uncertain.

Drone Strike Hits Tigrai TV

The latest fighting has also affected communications and media infrastructure.

Tigrai TV, a broadcaster based in Mekelle and associated with the Tigrayan authorities, was hit by a drone strike on Sunday, according to multiple reports.

The strike occurred as telecommunications services in Tigray experienced major disruptions, limiting communication with residents and making independent reporting from the region more difficult.

The disruption has raised concerns among residents about access to information and essential services.

UN Raises Alarm Over Civilian Harm

The United Nations has expressed serious concern over the renewed violence.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said he was particularly troubled by reports involving drones and incidents in which civilians had been harmed. The UN has urged all parties to exercise maximum restraint and resolve their differences through dialogue.

Human Rights Watch has similarly called for immediate measures to protect civilians and civilian infrastructure.

The concerns are particularly significant given the scale of the previous Tigray conflict, which ended with an African Union-mediated cessation-of-hostilities agreement in November 2022.

Humanitarian Situation Under Pressure

The renewed fighting is taking place in a region already facing significant humanitarian needs.

Displacement, disrupted communications and restrictions on movement could make it more difficult for humanitarian organisations to reach affected communities.

The situation also comes as neighbouring Sudan continues to experience a major humanitarian crisis, increasing concerns about the consequences of another large-scale conflict in the Horn of Africa.

For now, the immediate priority for humanitarian organisations and international bodies remains the protection of civilians and restoration of humanitarian access.

Fears of a Wider Conflict

The escalation has revived concerns that Ethiopia could return to a much broader conflict in the north.

The European Union, United Nations and human rights organisations have called for de-escalation and dialogue, while regional tensions involving Eritrea and Sudan add further complexity to the situation.

The extent and duration of the latest fighting remain uncertain. What is clear is that the renewed clashes are already affecting civilians and threatening to reverse some of the stability achieved following the 2022 peace agreement.