Ruto and Sifuna Tie in Popularity as Preferred 2027 Election Winner

NAIROBI, Kenya – The race for Kenya’s presidency in 2027 has taken a new turn after a latest opinion poll placed President William Ruto and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna at an equal level of popularity among Kenyans who were asked to identify their preferred presidential election winner.

The survey by Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA), released on Thursday, November 12, shows both leaders attracting 31 per cent support, highlighting Sifuna’s growing national profile and Ruto’s improved standing ahead of the next General Election.

The findings place the two politicians well ahead of other prominent presidential hopefuls, with Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka coming third at 9 per cent.

Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i follows with 5 per cent, while former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua attracts 4 per cent. Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro records 1 per cent support.

Sifuna records a significant rise

One of the most notable findings is Sifuna’s rapid rise in popularity.

According to the survey, the Nairobi Senator had not registered measurable support in earlier TIFA survey rounds between August 2022 and November 2025. His rating increased to 10 per cent in May 2026 and 15 per cent in June before reaching 31 per cent in November.

His emergence as a joint frontrunner marks a significant development in opposition politics, particularly as discussions continue over who could lead a united challenge against the incumbent administration.

Sifuna, who has become a prominent voice in political debates and public criticism of the government, now finds himself competing at the same level as the sitting President in terms of stated voter preference.

Ruto's support also improves

For President Ruto, the poll points to a recovery in his popularity.

His support stood at 18 per cent in August 2022 before falling to 16 per cent in September 2025. It later increased to 19 per cent in November 2025 and reached 24 per cent in May and June 2026.

The latest rating of 31 per cent represents a further improvement for the President as he prepares for a possible re-election campaign.

However, the findings also suggest that the presidential contest remains open, with neither Ruto nor Sifuna commanding an outright majority of stated preferences.

Opposition candidates trail joint frontrunners

The survey indicates that other established political figures are trailing the two leaders.

Kalonzo Musyoka, who previously recorded stronger support in earlier survey rounds, now stands at 9 per cent. Matiang’i has dropped to 5 per cent, while Gachagua records 4 per cent.

The figures highlight the challenge facing opposition leaders as they seek to consolidate their political support ahead of 2027.

TIFA's findings also suggest that Sifuna's growing popularity has affected the standing of other opposition figures, although the poll does not establish that their supporters would automatically back him in a presidential contest.

Undecided voters could shape the race

Despite the emerging competition, a significant number of Kenyans have yet to settle on their preferred candidate.

The survey places undecided respondents at 15 per cent, while 4 per cent declined to state their preference.

This group could become an important factor as political campaigns intensify, alliances take shape and candidates communicate their policy agendas.

The findings should, however, be understood as a snapshot of public opinion at the time of the survey rather than a prediction of the eventual election outcome. Political realignments, campaign strategies, party nominations and voter priorities could significantly alter the race before August 2027.

A new political contest ahead of 2027

The tie between Ruto and Sifuna introduces a new dimension to Kenya's political landscape.

For the President, the findings point to improving support but also underline the competition he faces as he seeks another term. For Sifuna, the results represent a major rise in national political visibility and could strengthen his position in ongoing discussions about opposition leadership.

The central question now is whether the emerging political momentum will translate into formal presidential candidacies, stronger political alliances and ultimately votes at the ballot.

With the 2027 General Election approaching, the coming months are likely to test the durability of these preferences and the ability of political leaders to turn public support into a winning electoral coalition.