In Kenya’s volatile political landscape, few parties have endured the turbulence of shifting alliances and ideological battles like the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). Born out of the 2005 constitutional referendum, ODM has long been synonymous with its founding leader, the late Raila Odinga. His passing in October 2025 has left the party grappling with a leadership vacuum, internal rifts, and questions about its identity ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Raila’s Absence and the Succession Void
For two decades, Raila’s charisma and political acumen kept ODM united despite external pressures and internal disagreements. His sudden death exposed the party’s lack of a clear succession plan, unleashing simmering tensions that had long been contained.
Currently, Raila’s elder brother, Oburu Oginga, serves as acting party leader. Yet his leadership has been met with skepticism, with critics pointing to his limited clout compared to Raila’s towering influence.
Family Divisions Spill into Public
The Odinga family itself has become a focal point of ODM’s struggles. Winnie Odinga, Raila’s daughter and EALA MP, alongside her brother Raila Junior, has openly criticized attempts by senior ODM leaders to align the party with President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza coalition. Winnie insists that ODM must remain true to Raila’s consultative style and resist being co-opted into government without broad consensus.
Her stance has found support among youthful leaders and grassroots members, who see ODM’s strength in maintaining an independent opposition identity. Ruth Odinga, Kisumu Woman Representative and ODM deputy organizing secretary, has echoed Winnie’s concerns, warning against rushing into pre-election pacts before strengthening internal structures and ensuring the implementation of ODM’s cooperation agreement with the government.
Factions and Parallel Activities
ODM is now split between two camps:
- Pro-government faction led by Oburu Oginga, Ali Hassan Joho, Wycliffe Oparanya, Gladys Wanga, and Opiyo Wandayi, who argue that continued cooperation with Ruto’s administration offers leverage and continuity.
- Opposition faction led by younger voices like Babu Owino, Edwin Sifuna, and Winnie Odinga, who demand ODM reclaim its independence and prepare for a full-scale 2027 campaign.
This divide has manifested in parallel grassroots activities, with leaders holding competing meetings and undermining party organs. Communication has become incoherent, and unity pledges ring hollow against the backdrop of factional maneuvering.
Identity Crisis and Intergenerational Tensions
ODM’s current turmoil reflects a broader intergenerational competition. Older leaders cling to established power structures, while younger members push for renewal and a more assertive opposition stance. Without Raila’s unifying presence, ODM faces an identity crisis: is it a government partner or a true opposition force?
Possible Endgames
Several scenarios loom for ODM:
- Negotiated Unity: An early National Delegates Conference (NDC) could reconcile factions, legitimize leadership, and chart a coherent strategy for 2027.
- Split: ODM could fracture into government-aligned and opposition wings, echoing the fate of FORD after Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s death. Such a split would weaken ODM’s electoral strength and diminish its grassroots appeal.
- Decline: Ignoring youth voices and grassroots grievances could erode ODM’s support base, leaving it a shadow of its Raila-led days.
Conclusion
ODM’s future hinges on whether it can honor Raila Odinga’s legacy by fostering unity, inclusivity, and ideological clarity. The Odinga family, as custodians of the party’s heritage, must rally members around shared goals rather than personal rivalries. With the 2027 elections fast approaching, ODM faces a defining moment: to either reinvent itself as a credible opposition force or risk fading into political irrelevance.
