Rebels in Ethiopia’s restive Tigray region have warned that federal authorities appear to be preparing to “wage war” again, amid reports of troop and equipment build-ups along the regional border.
The warning comes just over two years after the end of a brutal civil war that pitted federal forces, allied militias, and the Eritrean army against fighters from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The conflict, which ended in 2022, is estimated to have killed at least 600,000 people.
Ceasefire Under Strain
Although a ceasefire has largely held since 2022, sporadic clashes between federal and Tigrayan forces have been reported since November last year, raising fears of a return to full-scale conflict.
The TPLF, which dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, remains a powerful force in the north. Federal authorities have accused the group of growing closer to neighboring Eritrea, whose relations with Addis Ababa have become increasingly fragile.
Regional Tensions
The tensions are compounded by Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access, a strategic priority for the landlocked country. Eritrea has expressed concern that Ethiopia may attempt to achieve this through military means, further straining relations between the two nations.
Analysts warn that renewed fighting would be devastating for Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray, with the potential to destabilize the wider Horn of Africa. Past conflicts in the region have already cost hundreds of thousands of lives and displaced millions.
Outlook
With troop movements reported and rhetoric hardening, the risk of renewed war looms large. Observers say the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether diplomacy can avert another round of bloodshed in a region still scarred by recent conflict.
