Renewed Ethiopia Fighting Raises Fears of Wider Horn of Africa Instability

Renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia and the formation of a new alliance involving former rivals have raised concerns about a possible escalation of conflict beyond the Tigray region, with analysts warning of wider implications for the Horn of Africa.

Seven Ethiopian armed groups recently announced the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, an alliance that includes the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara Fano National Movement and other regional groups opposed to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.

Former rivals join forces

The alliance brings together groups that previously fought on opposing sides during Ethiopia’s 2020–2022 Tigray war.

Fano forces fought alongside federal and Eritrean forces against the TPLF during that conflict. Fano subsequently became involved in an armed insurgency against the federal government in Amhara.

The new alliance says it seeks to remove Abiy's government and establish an inclusive transitional administration. However, analysts have questioned how effectively the different groups can coordinate because of their geographical separation, political differences and competing territorial interests.

Concerns over renewed Tigray conflict

The development comes amid renewed tensions between Tigrayan forces and Ethiopia's federal government.

The 2022 Pretoria Agreement brought an end to the major phase of the Tigray war, but disputes over implementation and political control have continued. Recent clashes and military deployments have increased concerns about a return to broader conflict.

Magnus Taylor, a Horn of Africa analyst with the International Crisis Group, said the TPLF's military position is weaker than it was during the previous war but suggested that alliances with other opposition groups and possible external support could alter the balance.

Taylor also noted that the effectiveness of the new coalition remains uncertain because of differences among its members.

Regional risks

A wider conflict in Ethiopia could have consequences beyond the country's borders.

Ethiopia's relationship with neighbouring Eritrea remains particularly sensitive, while the continuing war in Sudan has created additional security pressures across the region.

Analysts have warned that overlapping political and security interests involving Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan and other regional actors could make any renewed Ethiopian conflict more difficult to contain.

The International Crisis Group has also highlighted continuing tensions in Tigray and escalating fighting involving Fano forces in Amhara.

Calls for restraint and diplomacy

The emergence of the Alliance for Survival has added another layer to Ethiopia's already complex political and security environment.

While the groups have publicly emphasized their opposition to the federal government, their ability to operate as a coordinated political or military force remains uncertain.

Analysts have stressed the importance of diplomatic engagement and restraint to prevent renewed fighting from developing into a broader conflict.

The situation is being closely watched across the Horn of Africa, where instability in Ethiopia could compound existing humanitarian and security challenges in neighbouring countries.