Renewed Tigray Fighting Raises Fears of New Humanitarian Crisis in Ethiopia

Dozens of civilians have reportedly been killed or injured since fighting resumed in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region in late September, with children among those affected.

The renewed conflict began on September 23 after months of rising tensions between the federal government and forces aligned with the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The fighting has spread beyond Tigray into parts of the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions.

The escalation has raised fears that the region could once again descend into a prolonged conflict similar to the devastating 2020–2022 war.

Children Among Those Injured

Medical sources and humanitarian witnesses have reported serious civilian injuries in several parts of Tigray.

Reports indicate that shelling around Maychew and Alamata injured dozens of civilians, including children. Medical facilities have also been treating people with severe injuries sustained during the fighting.

The situation has been made more difficult by disruptions to communications and restrictions on movement, limiting independent verification of casualty figures from some affected areas.

The United Nations has expressed alarm over the renewed hostilities and urged all parties to protect civilians and civilian infrastructure. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk has called for an immediate de-escalation and a return to dialogue.

Mekelle Falls to Government Forces

The conflict has also brought a major change in control of Tigray's regional capital, Mekelle.

Ethiopian pro-government forces regained control of the city on October 4 after Tigrayan forces withdrew. The TPLF confirmed its retreat and said the regional government would temporarily relocate.

Federal forces have also regained control of Alula Aba Nega International Airport in Mekelle, following its earlier seizure by Tigrayan fighters. Commercial flights to the region were disrupted during the fighting.

The government takeover represents a major setback for the TPLF and a significant development in the rapidly changing conflict.

Humanitarian Situation Deteriorates

The renewed fighting is threatening access to essential services and humanitarian assistance across the region.

Communication disruptions have made it difficult for residents to contact relatives and for humanitarian organisations to assess needs. Reports of people attempting to leave affected areas have also emerged as concerns about further fighting grow.

Human rights organisations have warned that the renewed hostilities could expose civilians to further violations.

Human Rights Watch has previously documented an August airstrike in Mekelle that injured 13 civilians, including seven children, and has called for investigations into attacks that may have violated international humanitarian law.

Fears of a Return to Full-Scale War

The latest escalation threatens the fragile peace established by the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended the previous two-year Tigray war.

That conflict caused an enormous humanitarian toll, with estimates of hundreds of thousands of deaths and widespread displacement and destruction.

The current fighting has also increased tensions across the wider Horn of Africa. Ethiopia has accused neighbouring countries of supporting forces opposed to the government, allegations that have been denied by the countries concerned.

With federal forces now controlling Mekelle and fighting continuing in parts of northern Ethiopia, attention is turning to whether the latest military developments will lead to a reduction in violence or further escalation.

For civilians already affected by years of conflict, the immediate priority remains protection, access to humanitarian assistance and the restoration of essential services.