Libya 15 Years After Gaddafi: Political Division Continues to Block Stability

Fifteen years after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya remains trapped in a cycle of political division, institutional rivalry and insecurity, with the hopes that followed the 2011 revolution still far from being realised.

Instead of developing into a unified state, Libya has evolved into a country dominated by two rival centres of power, each supported by political networks, armed groups and economic interests.

Recent violence has once again exposed the fragility of the situation. In eastern Libya, General al-Mansouri, an intelligence official aligned with Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, was assassinated. In the west, drone attacks targeted strategic energy infrastructure in Zawiya, adding to concerns over the security of the country's vital oil sector.

A Political Divide That Endures

Libya's political transition has repeatedly failed to reunify the country.

Elections expected in late 2023 did not take place, while competing factions have consolidated their influence and developed their own political, security and economic interests.

Over the years, administrations, armed groups, local officials and business networks have become deeply embedded in the divided system. Reunifying the country would therefore involve more than creating a single government. It would require a major redistribution of political authority, financial resources and positions of influence.

The political class that emerged after the 2011 revolution has also struggled to maintain public confidence. Political parties multiplied in the aftermath of Gaddafi's fall, but many have since lost influence as rivalry between competing centres of power has intensified.

A number of political figures and professionals have also withdrawn from public life, discouraged by an environment characterised by instability and persistent competition for power.

Oil Keeps Rival Camps Connected

Libya's oil-dependent economy illustrates one of the central contradictions of the country's political crisis.

A significant share of Libya's oil production comes from areas under the influence of Khalifa Haftar's eastern camp, while key institutions responsible for managing oil revenues are based in Tripoli in the west.

The arrangement creates an unusual form of economic interdependence.

Although the rival camps remain politically divided, both depend on the continued functioning of the country's oil economy and the distribution of its revenues. This economic relationship has helped prevent a complete breakdown of the state while simultaneously reducing pressure for a comprehensive political settlement.

Oil revenues can therefore keep Libya functioning without resolving the fundamental divisions that emerged after the revolution.

A Status Quo With High Costs

Fifteen years after Gaddafi's fall, the political system that has emerged is increasingly sustained by powerful actors who have established interests in maintaining the status quo.

For many ordinary Libyans, however, the consequences are very different.

Political uncertainty, fragmented institutions and recurring security threats continue to undermine the prospect of building a unified state capable of providing stable governance and reliable public services.

The failure to hold long-awaited national elections has further deepened frustration over the country's political future.

The Unfinished Promise of 2011

The 2011 revolution raised hopes for a new Libya built around political participation, accountable institutions and greater freedom.

Fifteen years later, those ambitions remain largely unfinished.

The persistence of rival authorities, competing armed groups and economic networks has made national reunification increasingly difficult. Meanwhile, oil continues to provide enough revenue to sustain the divided system without resolving its underlying political crisis.

Libya's challenge is therefore not simply to end its institutional division, but to create a political settlement capable of distributing power and resources in a way that competing factions can accept.

Until that happens, the promise of a stable and unified Libya envisioned after Gaddafi's fall is likely to remain out of reach.